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Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/23

by Keith Jaco

We’re still left chasing the high of Monday night following another night in the negative on Wednesday evening. 

This one wasn’t as bad as Tuesday, though, as we only saw a $5 drop following a 1/3 night. 

We were able to cash the late entry, one that was not listed in yesterday’s write-up. I had been holding onto Fred Van Vleet’s Pts/Asts prop as I was awaiting a possible tail, and we struck gold with another Prop Bomb winner as Deni Avidja cashed us out and FVV blew out his o28.5 PA prop. 

Devin Booker was a heartbreaker last night. He just barely eclipsed his PAR line of 41.5, finishing with 44, and of course we took the under. That loss paired with a great 26-point night from DLo left us 1/2 on that two-legger.

And our tailing of Trust the Data and COS failed us yet again as Zach Lavine finished well short of o25.5 points thanks to an embarrassing home blowout loss to Philly and Chris Paul couldn’t get any help from his teammates, falling wayyyyy short of o9.5 assists. 

Now, does this loss mean we’re done tailing and they’ve been put on the banned list? Absolutely not. Today is just another get-right spot, and I’ve gone ahead and locked in a two-leg play for $25 on each system’s picks. 

We’re taking Scary Terry Rozier’s o28 PA prop tonight against New Orleans and we’re pairing him with Spencer Dinwiddie o8.5 assists. 

Terry is still without LaMelo Ball and the Hornets will need his playmaking tonight against the Pels. 

Dinwiddie is poised to continue his unreal streak of dishing dimes to anyone who will catch them tonight as the Nets host Cleveland at Barclays Arena. 

My second and final two-leg play of the night is going to be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 points paired with Caris Levert o11 points at Brooklyn.

SGA has hit this mark in 6/L7, finishing with 31 points in the lone miss. This 31-point outing was in his last game, also against the Clippers, but that game totaled out at 201. Tonight, the o/u is set at 233 and Paul George is out. SGA also went into the half with 11 points before erupting for 20 in the 2H in that game. We’ll ride him to an even more impressive performance tonight. 

My Levert pick is another tail, this time piggybacking off Promo Guy at Action Network. He’s been solid with his NBA picks, and this Levert play falls right in line. He’s over 11 points in his last six games, playing 30+ minutes in 4/6 contests. He’s going against his former team again tonight, and even though he’s due to regress, I don’t think it’s going to start tonight at BKN. 

BONUS: March Madness Picks

I have had a much better March this spring compared to 2022. Yet I still can’t seem to get the best grasp on who to ride as a long shot. My heart says a team like Creighton or Arkansas can stay hot and ride a streak into the Final Four. But it almost seems so likely that Houston, Texas, or UCLA will come out on top. 

Nevertheless, I’m going to take a shot at picking a winner for each game tonight. I’m not going to do a deep dive and give my reasoning. Just going to throw out four picks and see if we can’t go 2-2 or even 3-1. 

CBB PICKS

Kansas State ML

Dear God, forgive me for picking against Tom Izzo in March.

UCONN -4

I’m still riding the Muss bus.

FAU +5

Tennessee orange. Gross. Go Owls, hoot hoot.

UCLA ML

Former Murray State HC Mick Cronin has the Bruins rolling. Please send Drew Timme home. 

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