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Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/22

by Keith Jaco

Well, last night didn’t go as planned, but we cashed one parlay and lived to see another day.

No, we didn’t turn a profit, instead dropping $20. But with three set plays and a bonus play to end the night, you can’t really be mad with a small loss like that.

Our lone win came from the 2-leg play of Jaylen Brown o26.5 points paired with Trae Young o40.5 Pts/Asts. 

This one didn’t come easy at all. Young appeared to be checked out for the night with the Hawks soaring to a 20+ point win, but he re-entered the game late to record six more pts/asts to cash. After that sweat, it was on to Brown in the nightcap. In another exciting finish, Brown just barely eclipsed 27 points, getting to the free throw line and canning a pair to put us over the 26.5 mark! 

This one felt good as Young was a personal play and Brown was an add from Prop Bet Guy at AN. He’s been sharp as of late, so I’ll be keeping an eye out for a possible tail tonight as well. 

If you’ve read along before, you know we tail some of our plays. And with PrizePicks, a lot of the battle comes with pairing these tails with each other, or our own leans. 

Tonight, I’m going back to the well on pairing my tails together as COS and Cheah each had abysmal nights of their own on Tuesday. 

You can’t beat a Cheah tail following a loss, so I’m going to ride his play of Chris Paul o9.5 Asts @ the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. 

To go along with this play, I’m taking Austin at COS’s play of Zach Lavine o25.5 points at home against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

For my original plays, I’m targeting a pair of guards in the nightcap between Phoenix and LAL. 

My first play is D’Angelo Russell o19.5 points. 

Russell has regressed a bit lately, averaging just 16 ppg in his last four games. Now this four game stretch does include his last two home games, but in total, as a Laker, Russell is averaging 22.2 ppg at Crypto.com Arena in games where he plays at least 20 minutes. And in those five games, Russell has gone over in three contests. Tonight is a must win game, Phoenix is without Ayton and Davis is listed doubtful and probable, so who knows if he’s suiting up. Let’s ride Russell to bounce back with a statement game at home.

My second play, and the prop we’re airing with Russell, is Devin Booker u42.5 PAR.

This is clearly not the most attractive prop considering Booker is capable of dropping 40+ on any night. But I’m going to bank on the fact that the Lakers are going to come ready to play and prepared to stop Booker knowing he will be the lone scoring option with Ayton sidelined. To reassure this pick, I’ve ran a few numbers to back things up. Booker finished with 39 PAR in the Suns’ lone contest this season, scoring 25 points in a 115-105 win at home. In road games this season, Book is averaging 37 PAR.

This may comeback to bite me, and I’m prepared to face the music, but I’m going to trust DLo and the Lakers to bring their A-game tonight. They need this one to stay relevant in the hunt for the play in tournament. The Suns need a win too, as they are only hovering above LAC and GSW by two games combined. So it’ll come down to which dog is hungrier. We’re going to ride the home team, even if it stinks a little.

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