Home » Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/20

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/20

by Keith Jaco

It’s been a few weeks, but I’m back today with a few NBA props for tonight’s Monday night slate.

While I was away, I continued to make plays, sometimes combining tails from Twitter with my own research, and other times going out on a limb and seeing if I couldn’t rattle off a quick winner. Regardless of the recipe I’ve used, I’ve continued to see positive results since I started playing on Prize Picks just three weeks ago.

During this short span, I’ve won nearly 1k in wins while cashing out just over $350 with $210 to play with at the start of today.

At the time of putting this blog together, I have already locked in one 2-leg play for $25. This one is courtesy of Calling Our Shot and Barstool’s Steven Cheah (Trust the Data). Thanks to Austin at COS’s track record as well as the undeniable strength of Cheah’s data, we’ve put together a strong play with Curry o4.5 made 3’s and R.J. Barrett u19.5 points. Curry has seen an insane shooting volume against a Houston team that ranks the worst in opposing team’s 3 PT shooting %. I’m not going to lie, this play worries me slightly, but I’m trusting the data, it’s all you can do. As for the Barrett play, I was more than eager to ride this wagon as Barrett has underwhelmed for me in the points and rebounds department this season, so tailing an under just felt right.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. NEW YORK KNICKS

For my own official plays, we’ll start with my favorite, which is Jalen Brunson o24.5 points at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Brunson is coming off a 24-point performance against the Denver Nuggets in his first game back from injury. In this game, Brunson shot 9-20 from the field including 2-5 from 3PT range in 32 minutes of action.

Tonight, we see Jalen in an incredibly favorable matchup against a poor defensive Timberwolves unit. Minnesota has not fared well against opposing point guards recently, giving up 28 points in their last game to Fred Van Vleet as well as an 88-point scoring combination from Demar Derozan and Zach Lavine in a double OT loss to Chicago. Jaylen Brown went for 35 points against MIN on 03/15 and Trae Young dropped a whopping 41 points in a 136-115 ATL home loss on 03/13.

Now I know a few of these scorers are shooting guards, but the point stands. Minnesota isn’t keen to playing defense on the perimeter. Brunson should have no problem exploiting this defense at home against another solid MSG crowd.

*Disclaimer – I fucked up and didn’t get my play in before Brunson’s line rose. Alas, I still feel comfortable with this one at 25 points even.

CHICAGO BULLS vs. PHILADEPLHIA 76ERS

My second play, and the one I have paired with Brunson’s o25 points, is James Harden o10.5 assists at home against the Chicago Bulls. Harden has hit this line in both of his matchups with Chicago this season (avg. 11 Asts) while also hitting this mark in 4/L8 overall games and 4/L8 home games.

This play is a bit dicey, as Harden often blows this prop out of the water or just narrowly misses it, but we’re banking on the Bulls to keep this game close. Chicago enters Monday night’s matchup with Philly coming off back-to-back win while sitting just 3.5 games back of the 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with just over 10 games to play. To tack on one last Harden stat, he’s only hit his points prop over in 2/L7 home games, so let’s bank on a night of facilitating the ball and finding the open man.

This is all I have at the moment. I’d like to find maybe one more angle to exploit before the games get going this evening, but it’s a small slate, so I may just hold off. If there are any last-minute plays, they’ll be added below before the 7 P.M. EST slate tips off.

Related Articles

Leave a Comment