Home » Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props (03/02)

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props (03/02)

by Keith Jaco

The most important thing for me after placing 2-3 plays is one thing: Remaining Profitable.

And if we can’t do that, let’s at least limit the damage to $20-$40 at the worst.

Now of course there comes the times when I get a little carried away and confident, and disaster strikes. And although I did add a last second play last night, it ended up being the winner we needed to stay profitable for the evening.

We picked up a win with a last second two-leg play that saw Donovan Mitchell absolutely CRUSH his Pts prop of 25.5 with a 44 point performance.

We paired Mitchell with Marvin Bagley III, and although he started off slow, we managed to just get over the 8.5 line with nine rebounds to cash a $30 winner. Big S/O to Capper Penguin (@__LordPenguin) for the tip on Bagley.

Unfortunately, we came up a bit short on our other two plays. I felt insanely good about Garland and Butler cashing for us, but a blowout kept us from seeing much of Jimmy down the stretch. Oh well, I still feel like it was the right play.

In the other loss, we took a gamble on a couple of guys and it bit us back. I had a hunch in yesterday’s write up that Brown’s unders might be a solid play, turns out I should’ve taken my own advice. He was cold and slow starting out, but ran out of time by only scoring 16 total points. 

Now that we’ve celebrated the win and dwelled on the losses, let’s see if we can throw together a few more solid picks and remain profitable tonight. 

Disclaimer: I am at Disney World today and tomorrow, so picks will be limited to 3-4 of my favorite picks/leans. I hope to be able to compile upwards of 5-7 a night, depending on the slate. 

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Golden State hosts the Clippers tonight at Chase Center with the winner taking sole possession of the fifth seed in the Western conference.

I love this spot for Klay Thompson to rebound from a poor shooting effort (8-21) against Portland on Tuesday night.

Klay just narrowly hit his o33.5 PAR prop, and tonight that line is set a bit lower at o/u 31.5.

Klay has hit the over on 32.5 PAR in three straight games, all of which have been at home. On top of that, he’s hit this number in 5 of his L7 home games dating back to Feb. 4th. 

Let’s ride the Thompson train again tonight.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS

We’re going back to the well on this pick as well, taking Kyrie Irving to continue his consistent streak of hitting o 5.5 assists. 

Irving has hit this mark in 5 of his 7 games with the Mavs. This includes 3 out of 4 home games.

Irving has recently commented about wanting to succeed and win with Dallas, so I don’t see any reason not to back him in another home performance against a Sixers team on a back-to-back, including three games in four nights.

Along with Kyrie, we’re gonna take Luka Doncic as well. 

He’s hit o 31.5 Pts in 3 of his L5 games, let’s see if he can’t turn it on and help add to Kyrie’s AST total.

That sets us up with a three-leg play that will net $100 if we can cash. In the words of the late, great Takeoff.. Let’s get it.

I’m pressed for time since I’m on vacation today and tomorrow, so my other play for the night, at this moment, is below. I’m tailing some guys I follow on Twitter, so my reasoning for taking these is based solely off of my trust in these guys and their track records. So here goes nothing!

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