Home » Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/21

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/21

by Keith Jaco

My philosophy is, and will always be… the best ability is profitability. 

We came SO close to a perfect night last night. Despite the small slate, we were able to make the right tails, pair them nicely, and walk away with a pair of wins. 

Even my own picks went 1/2 while sniffing a chance to push us to an undefeated evening. 

Nevertheless, we finished with a profitable night and have the chance to grow the bankroll with a plethora of Taco Tuesday promotions headed our way. 

Tonight, we’re switching things up as PrizePicks has so graciously dropped its first baseball taco on us for the World Baseball Classic championship game between the United State and Japan. 

For this play, we’re basically trusting three reliable workhorses that have continued to get on base and score runs this spring, whether it’s the WBC or a traditional Spring Training game. 

The Taco play is world phenom Shohei Ohtani o0.5 total bases. You hate to say there’s a freebie on the board… but this very well may be one.  

Ohtani has put together an absolutely INSANE World Baseball Classic. reaching base and hitting safely in all six of Team Japan’s games. Ohtani has recorded nine hits, nine walks, and scored nine runs in six games of action. All we need him to do tonight is stay the course and reach base ONE time. 

(And although Ohtani was a Taco play at o0.5 bases, I’d still take him at o1.5 bases with this track record of getting on base multiple times in multiple games.)

Along with the Taco, we’re going to play Mike Trout o1.5 bases with Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 bases.

Both Trout and Goldy have reached base in all five WBC games. Goldy and Trout have hit safely in 4/5 games, giving us consistent play of reaching base via hit. Goldy has gone deep, hit a double in another game and recorded two singles in another. Trout on the other hand has just one multi-hit game, but he did homer once, giving us o1.5 total bases in 2/5 games, compared to Goldy’s 3/5.

Although these aren’t clear cut indicators of a cash tonight, laying trust in the hands of the reigning N.L. MVP and a multi-A.L. MVP feels like an extremely sane and safe play to make. After all, this is for all the marbles. A chance to bring home a championship to your country. It’s hard to imagine either guy having a hard time getting up for a game like this.

In total, Goldschmidt has compiled six runs on six walks and five hits while Trout has recorded six hits, five walks, and four runs. To summarize… these guys are on-base MACHINES.

For our regularly programmed entertainment, we will be sticking to our normal routine of trying to pair tails with original plays and ending up on top. 

Last night we Trusted the Data, and Steven Cheah delivered with an all-time miracle cover as Stephen Curry hit a final-minute, meaningless three-point basket to cash the o4.5 3PT prop that we paired with Calling Our Shot’s R.J. Barrett u19.5 points play. 

Tonight, we’re tailing our guys again. And we’re also pairing a tail with a personal play. If I’ve learned anything in the game of PrizePicks, it’s this: You can have three good props, and three official plays, but if you can’t find a winning pair, you’re as good as broke. 

My initial plans were to take Nets shooting guard Mikal Bridges o24.5 points, a COS pick, but since it’s Taco Tuesday at PrizePicks, we’re getting Bridges down to 20.5 points, a mark too low not to take. He’s been a Taco the last two Tuesdays and cashed both times. So, back to the well we go.

And although I had plans to take one of my personal picks with Bridges, I wanted to get in on Cheah’s Jayson Tatum o5 assists prop, so we’re pairing these two together for $25. 

Cheah got Tatum at o4.5, but I couldn’t get that mark. Luckily, Tatum has recorded at least six or more assists in 6/L8 road games and 8/L12 overall. So I feel comfortable taking this at an even 5. 

ATLANTA HAWKS vs. DETROIT PISTONS

For my own personal play of the night, I’m going to back Trae Young at home against the Detroit Pistons. Now, I’m not sure if I’ll actually play this one on PrizePicks, I’m torn due to the possibility of a blowout, and in that case, I could fade my idea, so it may be a game-time decision. Regardless, I’m targeting Young’s Pts/Asts prop of 40.5. 

He’s cleared this mark in both road contests against Detroit, finishing with 41 and 48. At home, Young came up just short, finishing with 39 in 31 minutes of action in a 25-point blowout (130-105). 

Now that I’ve written this all out, my plan is to say fuck it and take the o40.5 Pts/Asts. Young is coming off one of his worst performances of the season, scoring just nine points and dishing out six assists in a 126-118 road loss at San Antonio. 

We’re going to bank on Trae to come out wheeling and dealing tonight at home. 

BOSTON CELTICS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS

Because we’ve got a WBC play and an NBA pair already set, I’m going to pair Trae Young’s o40.5 Pts/Asts prop with another tail, this time from the Prop Bet Guy at Action Network. This guy gave out the sneaky good Nick Richards play last night, and he makes a lot of good points for taking Jaylen Brown o26.5 points at Sacramento tonight.

The Kings play some of the worst defense, and we’re already on Tatum to facilitate, so let’s pair them together and see if we can’t nail both. This should be a high-scoring contest, so even if Tatum gets his, I’m sure the pair will be sharing the rock. 

So, this is what we got as of about 4:00 P.M. EST. Due to the possibility of 1-2 enticing Taco Tuesday plays dropping between now and tonight, I may throw together one more play. If so, I’ll try to add it below.

Let’s see if we can’t go back-to-back profitable nights!

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