Home » Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props: 03/01

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props: 03/01

by Keith Jaco

I think the best way to preface this new segment is to talk about my newfound love for the Prize Picks app. Being a Florida resident, the betting game is nearly nonexistent for me as the normal Sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and Barstool are all prohibited in the state. So, this basically leaves me with Daily Fantasy Sports apps to scratch the everlasting gambling itch that I get at the ass crack of dawn each morning.

Thanks to my co-worker Sergio, I got into Prize Picks last night, cashing my first two tickets thanks to some tails from a few trusted accounts on Twitter, as well as my own research.

I’ve enjoyed the research side of NBA prop betting so much that I’ve decided the best way to make this time spent studying productive is to share the research, thought process and eventual picks with my extremely niche and small audience. You gotta start somewhere, right?

Now obviously with any new venture, especially in the gambling space, there is going to be the inevitable “beginners’ luck” crowd. And to them I say, “yeah, you’re probably right.” I got bailed out with a HUGE Golden State comeback last night with Klay Thompson just narrowly hitting his PTs/Rebs/Asts line with a final three-minute drive to the rim. But if you think I’m going to apologize for a win, I got some badddddd news for you bucko (fucko).

Along with this two-leg win, I was also able to notch a win with a 2/3 finish in a Flex Play. A very cool feature that Prize Picks offers is the chance to add a little insurance to your plays. Now of course, with insurance comes the costs. I made my first play of the night a Flex Play, meaning even if I went 3/3, I was still taking a pay cut in winnings down to 2.25X instead of 3X. And in the event, I went 2/3, which I did because Klay didn’t hit his Pts prop of o26.5, I ended up with a 1.25X payout, which still netted me a $5 profit, so no harm no foul.

Now enough about last night, lets dive into tonight’s NBA slate. We’ve got some really good matchups with the Cavs visiting the Celtics, the Sixers finishing a Home/Away with the Heat in Miami and the NBA’s version of the “Subway Series” as Brooklyn heads to lower Manhattan to take on the red-hot New York Knicks at MSG.

It’s slightly early in the day as I write this, so there will be plays added to the card as the day progresses. But for now, here are a few props I’m keeping an eye on and looking to possibly play tonight.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ BOSTON CELTICS

Darius Garland is set at o/u 27.5 Pts/Asts @ Boston tonight. He has cleared this mark in 6 of his L10 games, missing the over with 26 and 27 in 2 of the 4 misses, so he’s consistent. He’s cleared o27.5 Pts/Asts in 8 of his L9 road games dating back to Jan. 18th. Cleveland is just 1-4 in its last 4 games but did rattle off seven straight before the All-Star break which included three road wins. 

Evan Mobley is set at o16.5 Pts tonight @ Boston. He has cleared this mark in 7 of his L11 games and has hit at least 17 Pts in 8 of his L11 road games dating back to Jan. 11th. On 10/28 @ Boston, Mobley had 19 and 10, and on 11/02 at home, he had 15 and 7 against them. Robert Williams is back for Boston, but I believe we can trust Mobley and Jarrett Allen to crash the boards and continue to get their own. Williams pulled down just 7 boards in the Celtics’ 109-94 loss to New York on Monday. 

Jaylen Brown is set at o24.5 Pts tonight against CLE. He’s cleared this mark in 11 of his L16 dating back to Jan 1st. including 5/8 home games. If you don’t like that, his Pts/Rebs is o/u 31.5. He’s only cleared his Pts/Rebs mark of 31.5 6 of his L16 and his Pts/Rebs/Asts in 7 of his L16. So there appears to be some value on the under for those two lines if you’d rather go that route. Something to think about. 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ MIAMI HEAT

Jimmy Butler is set at o/u 21.5 Pts tonight at home against PHI. He went for 23 against PHI on the road on Monday night, a game in which he went for 23 Pts, 11 Rebs, and 9 Asts. He’s cleared this scoring mark in 7 of his L10 games including 5/ L9 home games. Miami went just 4-6 in Feb. and currently sits 1.5 back of BKN for the sixth seed in the East. This is another big spot for Butler against his team as he looks to notch back-to-back wins and help Miami climb back up the ranks in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Tonight’s Plays (03/01)

I’m not sure what the structure will look like going forward, but I’d like to keep it close to the same night-in and night-out, but we’ll see.

For now, I’ll share the two plays I’m going with. The first is a three-legger that I earned by winning my first two plays on Prize Picks. Went out on a limb for a couple picks including returning to the well with Mika Bridges. Then, I paired him with Jaylen Brown’s points and anchored it down with my Evan Mobley pick.

For my second play, I kept things short and sweet and played my two favorite picks. Garland and Butler to continue their success. Let’s see if we can’t keep things rolling into Thursday and remain profitable.

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